Need to Know: Tom DeMark says technical indicators are flashing downside risks to stocks. Here’s what he says about the euro and bitcoin.
The U.S. dollar has been a wrecking ball through financial markets, to the point where there’s now speculation global authorities may try to cooperate to stop the greenback’s ascent.
But maybe they won’t need to.
Famed technical analyst Tom DeMark, whose indicators are designed for anticipating turning points and overextended price moves, said the euro EURUSD on Monday recorded its first indication of likely daily down trend exhaustion 13 in months.
DeMark’s analysis relies on the number of days, which don’t have to be consecutive, in which there was a close lower than the close two days ago. When the countdown reaches 13, a buy signal is usually triggered. The DXY DXY dollar index, he said, is lagging by one count and is currently sell countdown ’12’. See DeMark’s analysis on his website Symbolik.com
The euro on Tuesday edged up to $0.9635 but has slumped 15% this year.
The euro recently fell through its long-term risk level of 0.9650. “Although there may be additional long term risk to EURUSD 0.80, at a minimum, there should be a multi-month recovery back to at least EURUSD 1.20+,” he said in a commentary provided to MarketWatch.
DeMark said he still concerned about the stock market. “Our indicators continue to flash downside risk,” he said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA on Monday entered a bear market after falling 20.5% below its Jan. 4 record finish. The S&P 500 SPX has dropped 23% this year.
On bitcoin BTCUSD, he’s grown more pessimistic than he was in July. He said the low in June had numerous deficiencies, as bottoms are rarely recorded on weekends and rarely coincident with a series of consecutive down days.
“Bitcoin timing indicator has made no progress since the June low and due to the rally off the June low, its downside price projection from the August high has been revised,” he said. Now the downside is $14,877.
U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 were pointing to a solid advance. The dollar fell, bitcoin BTCUSD rallied, and commodities including oil CL strengthened.
The British pound GBPUSD, and U.K. gilts BX:TMBMKGB-10Y, bounced higher after two rough sessions following the big tax cuts outlined by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said to expect another 100 to 125 basis points of tightening this year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also are scheduled to deliver speeches on Tuesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak about digital finance.
Durable-goods orders fell less than forecast in August, as the Case-Shiller 20-city composite showed home prices slumping.
At 10 a.m., consumer confidence in September and new-home sales for August will be released.
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